The delayed results of the Egyptian election have been released and as expected the Muslim Brotherhood's candidate Mohammed Morsi won with 51.7% of the vote - a 3.4% lead over Ahmad Shafiq. It bodes well that the vote did not come down to a closer race; the Bush v. Gore election almost split America, and we've been doing this for 200+ years. If the race had been closer and more easily contested Egypt's stability would be in probably be in immediate jeopardy.
How much power Morsi will have, if any, still remains to be seen. The Egyptian military and Supreme court have pushed back very strongly against the initial conditions of the power transfer; the Supreme Court invalidated quite a few of the major presidential candidates and in a more drastic decision, dissolved the recently formed Egyptian parliament, forcing new elections. The NYT notes that the military closed parliment the morning after the ruling which strongly indicates collusion, if not outright control of the Supreme Court by the military generals (the Supreme Court members were all been nominated by Mubarak). Even more radical was the announcement by the military that effectively castrated the president's powers, which has been called a 'military coup' in all but name.
If Ahmad Shafiq, the disposed-dictator Hosi Muburak's prime minister was elected, Egypt would have essentially reverted back to the old status-quo of an authoritarian leader backed by a military oligarchy. The military has argued that it is the only force able to guaranteeing security in post-revolutionary Egypt, but it begs the question of whether there ever was a successful revolution, or simply a massive public uprising mitigated by a regime change of only the very top slice of Egyptian governance.
If Mohammed Morsi can garner sufficient support beyond the Muslim Brotherhood he may be able to stunt the Military's power to some degree. If he cannot win support from the Egyptian Left, the youth activities and other disparate opposition groups I think the military will be able to consolidate its power - at least in the short term. I was originally still hopeful when the Supreme Court overturned parliment; I didn't understand the implications of such a drastic action it was and how far the status quo would go to blunt the constitutional and democratic reforms. In hindsight it seems a lot more sinister.
My general dogma for progress in Egypt (or any authoritarian country) is the building of significant institutions with power to check one another; if the Muslim Brotherhood can establish itself and counter the power of the military this could provide an opening for more reform and other institutions to grow and moderate the control of any single faction to undo the democratic reforms.
This state of affairs is so tenuous and quickly evolving that no one has a complete grasp on where Egypt stands, much less where it will go. As always my best wishes go to the Egyptians; they have the opportunity to make historic reforms for their country, and set an example for the middle-east which could alter the political paradigm more than George W. Bush's wildest dreams of democratic reform.
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